Metals News

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has called on steel mills to reduce output to curb excess supply, as iron ore prices hit a ten‑month low and inventories at major ports hit two‑year highs. The warning comes amid a weak real‑estate sector and sluggish infrastructure demand, which analysts say are delaying steel demand recovery. Prices dipped 3.9% to US$96.25/ton on the Singapore Exchange before a brief rebound.

Vedanta Chairman Anil Agarwal announced a $25 billion capital spend to lift iron ore output to 800 million tonnes, supporting India’s goal of 300 million tonnes of steel. Iron ore production is already up 51% YoY, and NMDC has set a record output, signalling a push to reduce imports and strengthen domestic supply.

China imported 210 million tonnes of iron ore in the first two months of 2026, a 10% rise YoY, yet steel output fell 3.6%. Port inventories hit record highs, indicating a build‑up of stockpiles rather than increased steel demand. Prices have been volatile, with a recent rebound linked to Middle East tensions, but not yet high enough to curb imports.

Aluminium markets are tightening as supply flexibility shrinks, driven by China’s 45‑million‑tonne capacity cap, energy‑price volatility, and limited recycling capacity. The 2026 Outlook projects a persistent deficit, meaning even modest supply shocks can keep prices elevated. Traders are moving from volume‑driven play to risk‑oriented positioning as power availability becomes the key gatekeeper for production.

Morgan Stanley has forecast aluminum prices at $3,700 per tonne in 2026, citing ongoing smelter shutdowns in the Middle East and shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruptions, which account for roughly 0.8% of global capacity, are compounded by limited capacity growth in China and Indonesia. The forecast signals sustained upward pressure on aluminum prices.

Allied Market Research projects the global aluminum casting market to grow from $72.9 billion in 2022 to $124.9 billion by 2032, driven by construction, automotive, electronics and industrial demand, with die casting leading growth. Asia‑Pacific dominates market share and is expected to maintain its lead.

Copper futures spiked 2.7% after President Trump postponed U.S. strikes on Iran, easing geopolitical risk. However, the metal faces a nearly 10% monthly decline driven by an 8% YoY drop in Chinese demand and a mid‑stream supply bottleneck, with smelter fees hitting record lows. Goldman Sachs forecasts prices to stay below $11,000 per tonne through 2026 unless Chinese demand recovers or a supply shock occurs.

Copper has largely reversed the decline seen after the Iran war, supported by firm demand and hoarding activity. Unencumbered inventories are at record lows, especially in China’s State Reserves Bureau and landlocked U.S. stocks, tightening supply. Algorithmic traders are positioned to add up to 13% of their maximum size if prices continue to climb.

Goldman Sachs analysts warn that ongoing Middle East tensions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, could further depress copper prices in 2026. The bank lowered its 2026 base‑case forecast to $12,650/ton from $12,850/ton, noting that prices may fall below $10,000/ton if shipping disruptions persist. Copper, which peaked above $14,500/ton earlier this year, is now trading roughly 2.5% lower for the year and is considered overvalued relative to an estimated fair value of $11,100/ton.

G Mining Ventures (TSX:GMIN) announced a $2.13 billion all‑stock transaction to acquire G2 Goldfields (TSXV:GTWO). The deal merges G Mining’s Oko West project with G2’s Oko‑Ghanie project, creating a tier‑one gold mine in Guyana that could produce over 500,000 ounces annually and deliver significant cost savings. First gold production is still targeted for the second half of 2027.

Trafigura has agreed to purchase 700,000 ounces of gold doré from Ghana’s Heath Goldfields and provide $65 million in debt to restart oxide ore operations at the Bogoso-Prestea mine. The arrangement, expected to begin deliveries later this year, underscores Trafigura’s continued expansion into precious‑metal trading after entering the gold and silver doré market in 2025.

South African platinum exports climbed 13% in the first two months of 2026, with platinum, palladium and rhodium all rebounding to China and Europe. UBS warns that a prolonged Middle East war could raise diesel costs, squeeze mining margins and potentially curb future PGM supply, while automotive demand may shift toward electric vehicles.

Vedanta Group chairman Anil Agarwal highlighted the need for $20‑$25 billion in capital to build large‑scale iron ore producers, citing that India will have to import 75% of its 800 Mt iron ore requirement to reach a 300 Mt steel target. He noted that imports are projected to rise to 12‑14 Mt in 2025‑26, mainly from Brazil and Oman, and that domestic production must expand to avoid a supply crunch.

POSCO announced a 50,000 won per ton hike across all steel products for Q2, citing rising energy, logistics, and raw material costs tied to Middle East conflict. Hyundai Steel is expected to follow suit, potentially raising steel costs for downstream sectors such as automotive, shipbuilding, and home appliances.

Iron ore spot prices dropped to a three‑week low, reflecting weaker steel margins and sluggish demand. The decline follows a tightening supply environment and a slowdown in global steel production, with analysts warning that lower margins could curb new orders.

Steel prices have rebounded sharply in Q4FY26, driven by post‑monsoon demand, safeguard duties and strong export growth, leading to projected EBITDA growth for major steel producers. Aluminum prices rose 22% Y‑O‑Y, but company‑specific headwinds such as the Novelis fire and alumina price declines are expected to dampen year‑on‑year earnings, despite sequential improvements.

China’s state‑run buyer halted all new BHP Group iron‑ore shipments after contract talks stalled, adding pressure to already weak iron‑ore prices. Rio Tinto and BHP are seeking new supply arrangements and cost‑efficiency measures, while copper gains partially offset the impact on earnings. The dispute may extend into 2026, potentially curbing global iron‑ore demand and steel production.

Iron ore prices slipped again, with the Dalian Commodity Exchange contract down 0.5% to 799.5 yuan (≈$116.26) and the Singapore benchmark falling 0.92% to $105.4. Elevated portside inventories in China and potential supply increases from BHP and the state buyer weighed on sentiment, though a rebound in hot‑metal output helped temper the decline.

China's iron ore import volumes remain flat, while prices have risen slightly amid tightening supply from major exporters. Importers are keeping inventory levels steady, indicating sustained demand for steel production.

India’s largest iron ore producer, NMDC, has increased the prices of its Baila Lump and Fines products by 10.4% and 11.1% respectively, effective April 5, 2026. The hike follows a record 53 Mt production in FY25‑26 and reflects the company’s robust output from its Chhattisgarh and Karnataka mines.

Steel shipments from U.S. mills climbed 5.1% year‑over‑year to 7.4 million short tons in February, driven by a 9% jump in hot‑rolled sheet and strip and a 10% rise in corrosion‑resistant products. Cold‑rolled sheet fell 8% YoY, and overall January‑February shipments were 3.5% higher than the same period last year. U.S. imports of rolled steel fell 38.5% YoY, while total steel imports dropped 37.6%. The data signal a gradual recovery in domestic demand and a tightening of supply.

Iron ore prices fell after traders noted higher global inventories and the implementation of stricter anti-dumping rules. The decline signals a temporary supply glut and heightened regulatory scrutiny on imports.

Global aluminium supply is constrained by a near‑cap in Chinese production and limited new smelter capacity, while demand is bolstered by electric‑vehicle growth, infrastructure spending and renewable‑energy projects. Analysts project 2025 average prices between USD 2,400 and USD 2,700 per tonne, with a peak in Q3 2025. Forecasts for 2026 diverge, but many expect a modest surplus to ease prices slightly.

Recent volatility in aluminium prices has been highlighted as a key indicator of broader industrial activity. Analysts note that swings in aluminium rates reflect changes in demand for other industrial metals such as copper and steel, underscoring a tightening or loosening of global manufacturing momentum.

Global aluminium consumption hit 100.8 Mt in 2024, with 28.4 Mt sourced from recycled aluminium. Primary output is expected to grow only modestly to 73.9 Mt in 2025, constrained by China’s 45 Mt capacity cap and European smelting shutdowns. Consequently, recycled aluminium demand is projected to climb 3.87% in 2025, bolstering the low‑carbon supply backbone.

Attacks on Aluminium Bahrain and Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter have shifted supply risk from logistics to production, tightening Gulf output that feeds a large share of European and Asian imports. Physical premiums have risen sharply, and energy constraints in the region could force further curtailments, threatening a longer‑term erosion of supply.

Iranian attacks on Gulf aluminium producers Alba and Qatalum triggered a 10% jump in aluminium prices, reaching $3,492/tonne – the highest in four years. The shock deepened an existing 600 kt supply deficit, lowered LME inventories to a record low, and pushed the US Midwest premium past $1/lb, signalling acute spot scarcity.

Attacks on Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter and Aluminium Bahrain’s plant have halted roughly 3 mtpa of capacity, nearly half of Middle Eastern output. The resulting supply shock has pushed LME aluminium prices up more than 10% since the start of the Iran war, heightening the geopolitical risk premium.

Aluminium markets are set to remain in deficit through 2026 as supply growth lags behind a structural rise in demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and grid expansion. Global inventories are at multi‑year lows, and China’s production capacity is near full utilisation, limiting new output. With cost curves around $2,400/tonne, prices are expected to stay well above cost, supporting sustained price strength.

The aluminium cans market grew to $52.93 B in 2025 and is projected to expand at a 3.20% CAGR to $72.53 B by 2035. Growth is driven by rising demand from the food and beverage sector, increasing sustainability concerns, and innovations such as IoT‑enabled cans. The shift toward recyclable packaging and the beverage industry's expansion underpin the positive outlook.

The global aluminum market grew to $162 billion in 2023 and is projected to hit $285.4 billion by 2033, a CAGR of 5.9% from 2024‑2033. Growth is driven by the expanding transportation sector—especially electric vehicles—and rising construction demand, while advances in inert‑anode smelting and recycling technologies enhance sustainability and reduce production costs.

The aluminium market is entering a structurally tighter phase, driven by China’s 45‑million‑tonne production cap, limited smelter expansion, and rising electrification demand from EVs, solar and grid infrastructure. Global supply is constrained, with a projected slight deficit of ~140,000 tonnes in 2026, while inventories remain low and physical premiums stay elevated. Disruptions at key smelters such as Mozal, Alba, and Qatalum, and geopolitical risks like the Strait of Hormuz, further tighten supply.

Copper prices hover near $14,500 per tonne as a sudden collapse in smelting processing fees to $0 forces smelters to cut output by 10% for the rest of 2026. The resulting supply bottleneck, coupled with miners retaining almost all ore value, has spiked the refined copper premium beyond $300 per tonne and pushed the market toward vertical integration by tech and automotive giants. The crisis is reshaping the copper supply chain, making refined copper a strategic bottleneck for AI and electrification projects.

Demand for copper is outpacing supply as electric vehicles, data centers, and air‑conditioning systems drive up usage. Despite record high prices, mining investment remains low due to permitting delays and low profit margins, while recycling can only cover about 35% of future demand. New mines will take 20–30 years to become operational, leaving a widening gap that could force prices higher in the short‑to‑medium term.

Copper prices near record highs are buoyed by electrification, AI demand, and constrained mine supply, yet smelters are experiencing historic fee compression, with treatment and refining charges falling from $80/t in 2024 to near zero by 2026. The resulting imbalance is prompting closures, subsidies, and consolidation, especially in China where state‑backed procurement is tightening. While copper remains structurally bullish, the midstream’s fragility could reshape bargaining power and supply dynamics in the coming year.

Fastmarkets forecasts that 2026 will bring heightened difficulties for the global copper smelting sector, driven by a widening supply‑demand gap, record‑low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), and fragmented pricing negotiations. Smelters are under pressure to cut output as profitability erodes, though by‑product revenues such as sulfuric acid, gold and silver provide limited support. The industry may shift toward index‑linked pricing, further complicating benchmark establishment.

Ivanhoe Mines announced revised copper reserves and mine plans for its Kamoa‑Kakula operation following a May 2025 seismic event. The company lowered its 2026‑27 production and cash cost outlook, citing the need to adjust mine design and operational milestones.

Copper has rebounded from a period of weakness, but high LME inventories and the prospect of Panama stockpile sales or a mine restart add short‑term supply pressure. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in Chilean output signals longer‑term supply constraints that could lift prices once macro‑economic worries ease.

China’s refined copper imports fell to the lowest level since 2011, dropping to 125,350 t in February 2026, while smelter exports surged to 172,000 t in the first two months. Domestic smelting capacity grew 9% year‑on‑year, and inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange peaked at 433,500 t, dampening immediate demand. The net draw on global copper supplies fell to just 283,000 t, the weakest start to a year since 2006, signalling a shift of production power toward China.

Demand for copper is surging faster than expected, driven by AI data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy installations, while mine production growth lags. The International Copper Study Group projects a 150,000‑tonne deficit this year, and major miner Freeport‑McMoRan is using AI to boost output. With supply tightening, the market is already slipping into a deficit, positioning copper for a price rally.

Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 copper price forecast to $12,650 per tonne from $12,850, citing softer demand expectations linked to weaker global economic growth. The bank maintains a bullish long‑term view, citing continued demand from electrification and electric vehicle production.

Eli Lilly's latest acquisition is positioned to accelerate growth in a drug class that has been maturing after years of fine‑tuning. The move could open new market opportunities, but the article does not touch on any metal commodities or supply chains.

Metals Focus projects rhodium prices to rise 8% in 2025, outpacing platinum (+1%) and palladium (‑5%). The forecast stems from a 23% deficit in rhodium stocks, projected to fall to 349,000 troy ounces, the lowest in four decades, while palladium and platinum deficits are smaller and may require further drawdown. Lower South African production and tightening inventories are driving the rhodium rally, whereas palladium’s surplus expectations and recycling supply are weighing on its price.

The article details how PGM mining causes habitat destruction, land degradation, high energy consumption, and water pollution from tailings and acid mine drainage. These sustainability issues threaten the supply chain for catalytic converters and highlight the need for greener extraction methods. The focus is on the environmental trade‑offs of meeting growing demand for PGMs.

Anglo American Platinum Ltd. dismissed half of the underground workforce at its Mototolo mine following an illegal strike, but the company stated the action had a negligible effect on overall platinum production.

Lifezone Metals Limited announced that its hydrometallurgical process has successfully extracted platinum, palladium and rhodium from U.S.-sourced spent automotive catalytic converters. The company completed 1,179 locked‑cycle runs, yielding a significant batch of precious metals and demonstrating the commercial viability of large‑scale recycling.

Platinum has gained nearly 94% in 2025, climbing from $910 to $1,766 per ounce, driven by a persistent supply shortfall of about 850,000 ounces and projected demand of 8 million ounces by year‑end. China’s reclassification of platinum as a strategic critical mineral and the launch of Guangzhou futures tighten supply and boost institutional demand. Analysts now see platinum prices potentially reaching $2,340 per ounce in 2026, with continued upward momentum expected.

Platinum is nearing a key decision zone, with analysts forecasting a breakout to $3,000 amid supply constraints and rising demand from energy‑transition themes. The US‑Iran ceasefire has weakened the dollar, lifting metals, though platinum may lag gold unless the price ratio falls below 0.60. Technical analysis points to a move toward $2,300 and a potential surge to $2,900 in the coming months.

The EU’s decision to extend its 2035 combustion‑engine ban has pushed platinum to its strongest monthly rally in nearly four decades, with the metal up 33% in December. Tight supply, rising investment demand, and the launch of PGM futures in China have further lifted prices, while palladium and rhodium also saw double‑digit gains this year.

Perth‑based Lifezone Metals has successfully recovered platinum, palladium and rhodium from US‑sourced spent automotive catalytic converters with over 99% recovery for Pt and Pd and 95% for Rh. The hydrometallurgical process could replace traditional smelting and, if scaled, produce 220,000 ounces of PGMs annually, potentially boosting U.S. supply and reducing import dependence.