Metals News

Copper futures hit a record $6.87 per pound on COMEX and $14,800 per metric ton on LME, up ~19% from the start of 2026. Analysts cite a projected 42‑million‑ton demand by 2040, declining ore grades, and electrification/AI infrastructure as key drivers. Supply constraints, sulfuric acid shortages, and potential U.S. tariffs add upward pressure, while a U.S. tariff rollback or AI slowdown could reverse gains.

The 2026 forecast highlights a dramatic shift in metal demand driven by the rapid expansion of AI data centers. Copper is projected to face a shortfall of 150,000 tonnes, pushing prices toward $12,500–$13,000 per ton and extending lead times. Each hyperscale facility will also require up to 20,000 tonnes of steel and significant aluminum for cooling and structural support, while domestic reshoring trends add supply‑chain urgency.

Copper futures fell after the Trump administration signaled a possible pause on refined‑copper tariffs, but the price decline may not ease costs for contractors because supply constraints and existing 50% duties on semi‑finished copper products remain in place. Copper wire and cable prices have risen 27.2% year‑over‑year, and the metal remains a key input for HVAC, power infrastructure and data centers. Aluminum and steel prices also stay elevated, adding to construction cost pressures.

Copper prices hit a record $14,527/mt after the Strait of Hormuz closure, with JPMorgan forecasting continued support through 2026 due to constrained mine supply and electrification demand. Aluminum faces a 1.7 Mt deficit, with prices projected to reach $3,800/mt in Q3 2026 before easing, driven by Middle East supply disruptions and Chinese capacity limits. Steel remains near $1,186/mt, buoyed by tariff exemptions and a new EU tariff‑rate quota, though demand weakness in China tempers upside.

The report projects a platinum deficit in 2026 driven by declining South African output and limited recycling, while palladium and rhodium are expected to see modest surpluses as Russian supply contracts and secondary recycling rises. The supply squeeze for platinum is likely to lift prices, whereas palladium and rhodium may experience downward pressure. Structural shifts in mining and recycling are poised to reshape the PGM market in the near term.

Platinum, palladium and rhodium prices have fallen more than 30% from January highs amid Middle East tensions and higher interest‑rate expectations, triggering large sell‑offs in ETFs and futures. Analysts forecast further downside in the second half of 2026, yet long‑term supply deficits and growing demand from automotive, tech and green‑energy sectors suggest a potential rebound. Share prices of major PGM producers have declined, creating valuation gaps that may offer selective investment opportunities.

Johnson Matthey highlights a sharp rise in platinum group metal (PGM) prices, driven by a rebound in demand and ongoing supply disruptions. The company notes that the combination of tighter supply chains and increasing automotive and industrial usage is pushing prices higher.

A Reuters poll projects iron ore prices to hover around $50 per tonne for the next two years, a level that is only about a quarter of the highs seen during the mining boom. The forecast comes as Chinese steel output has peaked, curbing demand for iron ore. The outlook signals limited upside potential for the commodity, with prices expected to stay near current levels.

Iron ore prices fell after an initial rise, as widening steel‑mill losses, environmental‑regulation‑driven production cuts, and a surge in global shipments pushed demand lower. Supply-side pressure intensified with increased port arrivals, while expectations of benchmark negotiations offered only a short‑lived rebound. Analysts forecast continued downward pressure next week, with a possible modest rebound if negotiations materialize.

The iron ore benchmark settled at $99.57 per tonne for 62% Fe delivery into China, essentially flat for the day. China’s July crude steel output fell 3.6% YoY, and cumulative January‑to‑July production is down 3.1%. Investors reacted with a modest sell on Vale shares, while copper edged up 0.03%.

The most actively traded May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell to 746.5 yuan/tonne, a 0.27% decline. Futures prices slipped 0.99% weekly and 5.86% monthly, while the April Singapore Exchange contract slid 0.22% to $98.15/tonne. Expectations of steel production cuts from March 4 are weighing on demand, though high port margins and a tight spot market have capped the fall.

Global crude steel output fell 4.2% month‑on‑month in July, largely driven by an 8.1% drop in China. Futures curves for Chinese iron ore and European hot‑rolled coils now imply higher 2027 prices, prompting PricePedia to lift its steel metals index forecast by 0.6% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. The upward revision is attributed to lower supply, higher energy costs from Middle‑East tensions, and new European protectionist measures.

The benchmark iron ore price fell 1.62% to US$97.72 per tonne, staying within the US$93‑100 band that has held since June. China imported 736.84 million tonnes, but weak steel demand has dampened prices. Despite the dip, Vale’s shares rose 4.03% on a cautious supply stance and recent revenue growth, while CSN Mineração jumped 5.26% in São Paulo trading.

China’s recent mill cuts have lowered blast furnace operating rates to 89.08% and reduced daily pig‑iron output by 5,200 t. The seaborne benchmark fell to US$95.85/mt and onshore futures slid 1.71% to 718 CNY/mt. Vale’s shares fell to US$15.28, reflecting the weaker iron‑ore market.

Aluminium fluoride, a key electrolyte component in Hall‑Héroult electrolysis, is set to grow from USD 2.3 billion in 2026 to USD 3.5 billion by 2036 at a 4.6% CAGR. Primary aluminium producers are driving demand through continuous potline operation and new smelting investments, while feedstock security remains critical.

The global aluminium market is tightening, with historically low inventories and high utilisation pushing prices upward. Demand remains robust from electrification, renewable‑energy infrastructure, transport and packaging. Producers face limited spare capacity, higher energy costs and supply disruptions, making the market more sensitive to production changes.

Aluminium futures slipped 0.79% on the SHFE and 0.18% on the LME as expectations of U.S. rate hikes weigh on demand. China’s continued destocking of ingot inventory and a historically low LME inventory level have added supply‑side pressure, while rising oil and shipping costs keep geopolitical risk premiums elevated. The market remains in a consolidating phase with a core trading range of RMB 23,700‑24,500/tonne (LME USD 3,200‑3,300).

The global precipitated aluminum silicate market is projected to expand at a 4–6% CAGR through 2035, fueled by rising electronics demand, miniaturization, and regulatory shifts away from halogenated flame retardants. Premium, micronized grades will command 40–70% price premiums, while supply remains moderately concentrated with Chinese producers dominating standard grades. Raw material volatility in sodium silicate and aluminum sulfate poses margin risks.

Global aluminium extrusion usage is projected to climb from 34.27 Mt in 2024 to 44.22 Mt by 2035, a 2.29% CAGR. Key growth drivers include electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, electrical networks, data centres and advanced manufacturing, with China accounting for ~65% of current consumption and Asia‑Pacific expected to lead regional expansion.

The secondary aluminum market is projected to grow from $100.23 B in 2024 to $168.75 B by 2032, a 6.81% CAGR, as automotive and construction sectors increasingly adopt recycled aluminum for cost, energy, and carbon benefits. Key developments include Hydro’s high‑recycled‑content Cadillac component, Novelis’ new $5 B recycling‑rolling plant, and Nippon Light Metal’s closed‑loop battery scrap recycling, all boosting supply and reinforcing the circular economy.

LME aluminium is trading near $3,175 per tonne, up 23% YoY, after peaking at $3,651 in May 2026. Forecasts project a sustained rally to $3,300–$3,500 by 2027, driven by a structural deficit, Chinese smelter limits, and US tariff‑induced premium. A short‑term correction to roughly $3,144 by Q3 2026 is expected as inventories dip below 300,000 tonnes, but supply tightness should support a medium‑term rebound.

The global outdoor shutters market was valued at $3.3 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $6.9 billion by 2034, expanding at a 6.8% CAGR. Growth is fueled by rising demand for energy‑efficient window solutions, enhanced security, and aesthetic appeal, with aluminum gaining traction as a cost‑effective, durable material. The market is also being reshaped by automation, smart‑home integration, and sustainable composite materials.

The Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University released a report calling for policies that safeguard existing U.S. and allied copper smelting infrastructure. It argues that maintaining smelting capacity is critical to meet growing demand from automotive, electronics, and renewable‑energy sectors amid geopolitical tensions and supply‑chain disruptions. The study recommends regulatory and investment measures to secure this capacity.

Vedanta Resources’ Nchanga smelter in Zambia will be shut down for 60 days in June 2026 for refurbishment, cutting copper output and halting on‑site sulphuric acid production that feeds the downstream leach plant. The closure coincides with planned maintenance at two other major copper processing sites, amplifying the risk of a temporary supply squeeze. Zambia’s copper production already falls far short of its 2031 target, so the shutdown adds pressure on an already strained output pipeline.

Copper surged to an all‑time high of $14,779 per ton on the LME, while smelters face zero or even negative treatment charges, erasing profits on every ton processed. The collapse in smelting margins is driven by China’s dominance, new Indonesian capacity, and looming U.S. tariffs, tightening the supply of concentrate. Spot rates in the U.S. are near $6.75 per pound, mirroring the London surge. The market now reflects a shift in control of value from miners to smelters, with negative charges becoming the new norm.

Heavy weather in Chile has halted operations at several major copper mines, tightening an already strained global supply. With demand from AI data centers, EVs and smartphones remaining robust, copper prices have already hit an all‑time high and could climb further if the outages persist. U.S. tariff uncertainty and tighter scrap availability in China add to the supply‑demand imbalance.

Copper futures climbed to $6.61 per pound on COMEX, five days after setting an intraday record of $6.7045. The rally is driven by a three‑front supply collapse, highlighted by the Gresik smelter outage in Indonesia and recent disruptions in Chile and the DRC. London Metal Exchange inventories have fallen to roughly 223,000 metric tons, underscoring the scarcity of deliverable copper.

Copper briefly fell below its all‑time high after four consecutive gains, as China’s imports of unwrought copper fell to the weakest level in six years. U.S. imports surged to record highs, while mine supply is expected to decline for the first time since 2017, raising concerns about future availability. The potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on refined copper adds further uncertainty to the market.

Plans for a 15% U.S. tariff on refined copper stalled, triggering a sharp drop in copper prices after a frantic buying rally to record highs. Despite the immediate profit‑taking, analysts note that structural shortages, AI data‑center demand and global supply chain shifts keep long‑term fundamentals strong for copper, gold and silver.

London Metal Exchange copper surged to an all‑time high of $14,779 per ton, while the 2026 benchmark treatment and refining charge collapsed to $0, the lowest on record. Spot rates even turned negative, meaning smelters are effectively paying miners to process concentrate. The price spike is driven by China’s smelting dominance, Indonesia’s new capacity, and looming U.S. tariffs, reshaping control of the copper supply chain.

South African platinum miners and unions are negotiating a new wage deal that could avert a strike similar to 2014, which halted 1.3 million ounces of production. The dispute threatens to tighten supply, as South Africa and Russia produce roughly 70% of global platinum and 80% of palladium. With platinum prices up 22% this year, the market is already in a deficit supply situation for five consecutive years.

The study outlines how PGM producers and traders are managing supply and price volatility through hedging, inventory buildup, alternative sourcing, and technology upgrades. It highlights that these strategies aim to stabilize operations amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand.

Platinum prices spiked to $1,452 an ounce after the South African union representing workers at the world’s top three platinum mines called for a strike, affecting roughly 70,000 miners. The supply scare has pushed investors into platinum, driving the metal to its highest level since November.

A nine‑week strike at major South African platinum mines, led by Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin, is inflicting irreparable damage on the sector and local economy. The producers warn that ongoing labor disputes could tighten global supply and push prices higher.

Sibanye‑Stillwater (SBSW) has issued a strike notice for parts of its U.S. platinum‑group metal (PGM) operations, with the strike set to begin on Sept. 3, 2026. The notice does not cover the East Boulder mine, limiting the immediate supply risk. Negotiations are ongoing, and the market will watch whether the strike expands or is resolved before the deadline.

Union members at Sibanye Stillwater have announced a strike set to begin Thursday, citing the company's refusal to bargain in good faith. The strike would halt operations at the main mine and the Columbus smelter, affecting around 750 workers. As the company is the largest producer of platinum and palladium in the region, the stoppage could disrupt supply chains for these metals.

Sibanye‑Stillwater will start a strike on September 3 at its Stillwater East mine and Columbus smelting complex, affecting roughly 750 workers. The strike could halt up to 55% of the company’s U.S. platinum‑group‑metal output, which includes platinum, palladium and rhodium. Production impact will depend on strike duration and restart logistics.

Johnson Matthey’s PGM Market Report projects platinum to remain in supply deficit this year, while palladium and rhodium could see small surpluses. The outlook cites weak autocatalyst recycling, mine rationalisation, and robust industrial demand from petrochemicals, electronics, and ICE vehicles.

Palladium jumped 4.9% to $1,441 an ounce on September 3, its highest level in three weeks, driven by a labor strike at the U.S. Sibanye‑Stillwater mine, ongoing power issues in South Africa, and U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers. Platinum moved in the same direction, and analysts now project palladium averages around $1,400 for the year. The spike reflects tight supply and heightened geopolitical risk, but spot prices have since cooled slightly.

BMI trimmed its 2026 price forecasts for platinum to $1,900/oz and palladium to $1,400/oz, citing a 1% decline in global vehicle sales and a faster-than‑expected recovery in South African mine output. The agency now expects platinum autocatalyst demand to fall 4% to 2.9 million oz, while palladium demand is projected to be 102,000 oz short of supply. South African production is lifted to 4.3 million oz, driven largely by Valterra Platinum and a 12% rise in first‑half output from Anglo American Platinum.

Platinum prices are poised for the strongest monthly gain in nearly four decades, driven by the EU’s reversal of its 2035 combustion‑engine ban, a constrained supply environment, and growing investment demand for precious metals.

A Metals Focus report projects continued supply deficits for platinum, palladium and rhodium next year, yet high inventories are keeping prices subdued. The consultancy highlights robust demand but warns that excess stock will weigh on price levels.

CPM Group’s 2026 outlook shows a narrowing platinum surplus, a projected palladium deficit, and a modestly widening rhodium surplus. Prices surged in late 2025 and early 2026, largely driven by speculative ETF flows rather than fundamental demand, and have since retraced sharply. The report highlights a potential structural shift for palladium, a possible new price base for platinum, and a ceiling on rhodium price gains.

Metals Focus projects platinum to average $2,190/oz in 2026, up 71% YoY, while palladium and rhodium are expected to rise 37% and 62% respectively. The rally is underpinned by tightening supply, rising investor demand, and geopolitical risks that support safe‑haven buying. Physical deficits persist across all five major PGMs, with secondary recycling expected to grow but not offset falling primary output.

BMI trimmed its 2026 price forecasts for platinum to $1,900/oz and palladium to $1,400/oz, citing a 1% decline in global vehicle sales and a faster-than-expected rebound in South African mine output. The cuts leave BMI below street consensus and signal a short‑term bearish outlook for both metals, while long‑term projections still favor platinum over palladium.

Sylvania Platinum (SLP) reported FY2026 results with record 95,885 oz of platinum group metals (PGM) output, a 229% jump in net profit to $66.4 m, and a 60% rise in average basket price. The company lifted its dividend, launched a $1.5 m buyback, and shares gained 5.1% in early trade.

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has called on steel mills to reduce output to curb excess supply, as iron ore prices hit a ten‑month low and inventories at major ports hit two‑year highs. The warning comes amid a weak real‑estate sector and sluggish infrastructure demand, which analysts say are delaying steel demand recovery. Prices dipped 3.9% to US$96.25/ton on the Singapore Exchange before a brief rebound.

Vedanta Chairman Anil Agarwal announced a $25 billion capital spend to lift iron ore output to 800 million tonnes, supporting India’s goal of 300 million tonnes of steel. Iron ore production is already up 51% YoY, and NMDC has set a record output, signalling a push to reduce imports and strengthen domestic supply.

China imported 210 million tonnes of iron ore in the first two months of 2026, a 10% rise YoY, yet steel output fell 3.6%. Port inventories hit record highs, indicating a build‑up of stockpiles rather than increased steel demand. Prices have been volatile, with a recent rebound linked to Middle East tensions, but not yet high enough to curb imports.

Aluminium markets are tightening as supply flexibility shrinks, driven by China’s 45‑million‑tonne capacity cap, energy‑price volatility, and limited recycling capacity. The 2026 Outlook projects a persistent deficit, meaning even modest supply shocks can keep prices elevated. Traders are moving from volume‑driven play to risk‑oriented positioning as power availability becomes the key gatekeeper for production.