China to Record Iron Ore Imports in 2025 as Steel Production Declines
China is expected to surpass 1.24 billion tonnes of iron ore imports in 2025, while steel output falls below the 1‑billion‑tonne threshold for the first time in six years. The rise in imports is driven by stock replenishment, with port inventories climbing to 139.6 million tonnes. Steel production in 2024 dropped 3.9% YoY to 1.005 billion tonnes, the lowest in five years.
China is expected to surpass 1.24 billion tonnes of iron ore imports in 2025, while steel output falls below the 1‑billion‑tonne threshold for the first time in six years. The rise in imports is driven by stock replenishment, with port inventories climbing to 139.6 million tonnes. Steel production in 2024 dropped 3.9% YoY to 1.005 billion tonnes, the lowest in five years.
Higher iron ore imports will increase supply pressure on the iron ore market, potentially keeping prices near the current $100‑108/t range. The concurrent decline in steel output signals weaker demand for iron ore and steel, which could dampen steel prices in the short to medium term and affect downstream steel producers.