Steel Prices Rebound, Fueling Q4 Earnings Growth; Aluminum Outlook Mixed
Steel prices have rebounded sharply in Q4FY26, driven by post‑monsoon demand, safeguard duties and strong export growth, leading to projected EBITDA growth for major steel producers. Aluminum prices rose 22% Y‑O‑Y, but company‑specific headwinds such as the Novelis fire and alumina price declines are expected to dampen year‑on‑year earnings, despite sequential improvements.
Steel prices have rebounded sharply in Q4FY26, driven by post‑monsoon demand, safeguard duties and strong export growth, leading to projected EBITDA growth for major steel producers. Aluminum prices rose 22% Y‑O‑Y, but company‑specific headwinds such as the Novelis fire and alumina price declines are expected to dampen year‑on‑year earnings, despite sequential improvements.
The steel rebound should lift iron/steel prices and earnings for the sector in the near term, supporting higher margin expectations. Aluminum’s mixed earnings outlook may temper price gains, creating volatility for aluminum traders and potentially affecting hedging strategies.