Aluminium 2026 Outlook: Tight Supply and Structural Demand Keep Prices Elevated
Aluminium markets are set to remain in deficit through 2026 as supply growth lags behind a structural rise in demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and grid expansion. Global inventories are at multi‑year lows, and China’s production capacity is near full utilisation, limiting new output. With cost curves around $2,400/tonne, prices are expected to stay well above cost, supporting sustained price strength.
Aluminium markets are set to remain in deficit through 2026 as supply growth lags behind a structural rise in demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and grid expansion. Global inventories are at multi‑year lows, and China’s production capacity is near full utilisation, limiting new output. With cost curves around $2,400/tonne, prices are expected to stay well above cost, supporting sustained price strength.
Short‑to‑medium term, aluminium prices are likely to stay above cost, boosting producer margins and attracting investment in new capacity. However, ongoing power‑supply bottlenecks could introduce volatility, especially in regions where smelters compete with data‑centre energy demand.