Morgan Stanley Projects 2026 Aluminum Prices to Reach $3,700/tonne Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions
Morgan Stanley has forecast aluminum prices at $3,700 per tonne in 2026, citing ongoing smelter shutdowns in the Middle East and shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruptions, which account for roughly 0.8% of global capacity, are compounded by limited capacity growth in China and Indonesia. The forecast signals sustained upward pressure on aluminum prices.
Morgan Stanley has forecast aluminum prices at $3,700 per tonne in 2026, citing ongoing smelter shutdowns in the Middle East and shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruptions, which account for roughly 0.8% of global capacity, are compounded by limited capacity growth in China and Indonesia. The forecast signals sustained upward pressure on aluminum prices.
In the short to medium term, aluminum prices are likely to climb, prompting traders to seek long positions and consider hedging strategies. The tightening supply could also lift margins for smelters and alloy producers, while increasing demand for feedstock such as bauxite and alumina.