Copper Sentiment Boost Amid Geopolitical Calm, but Supply‑Demand Imbalance Persists
Copper futures spiked 2.7% after President Trump postponed U.S. strikes on Iran, easing geopolitical risk. However, the metal faces a nearly 10% monthly decline driven by an 8% YoY drop in Chinese demand and a mid‑stream supply bottleneck, with smelter fees hitting record lows. Goldman Sachs forecasts prices to stay below $11,000 per tonne through 2026 unless Chinese demand recovers or a supply shock occurs.
Copper futures spiked 2.7% after President Trump postponed U.S. strikes on Iran, easing geopolitical risk. However, the metal faces a nearly 10% monthly decline driven by an 8% YoY drop in Chinese demand and a mid‑stream supply bottleneck, with smelter fees hitting record lows. Goldman Sachs forecasts prices to stay below $11,000 per tonne through 2026 unless Chinese demand recovers or a supply shock occurs.
In the short term, copper may rally on sentiment swings but is likely to remain constrained by the structural surplus. Low smelter fees and Chinese buying at depressed prices could provide a floor, while traders should watch for any Chinese stimulus or mine outages that could tighten the market.