Copper Prices Face 2026 Downside Risk Amid Middle East Supply Chain Disruptions
Goldman Sachs analysts warn that ongoing Middle East tensions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, could further depress copper prices in 2026. The bank lowered its 2026 base‑case forecast to $12,650/ton from $12,850/ton, noting that prices may fall below $10,000/ton if shipping disruptions persist. Copper, which peaked above $14,500/ton earlier this year, is now trading roughly 2.5% lower for the year and is considered overvalued relative to an estimated fair value of $11,100/ton.
Goldman Sachs analysts warn that ongoing Middle East tensions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, could further depress copper prices in 2026. The bank lowered its 2026 base‑case forecast to $12,650/ton from $12,850/ton, noting that prices may fall below $10,000/ton if shipping disruptions persist. Copper, which peaked above $14,500/ton earlier this year, is now trading roughly 2.5% lower for the year and is considered overvalued relative to an estimated fair value of $11,100/ton.
Short‑term, copper demand could weaken as higher energy costs dampen global growth, leading to tighter refining margins and increased inventory drawdowns. Traders should monitor shipping indices and geopolitical developments for potential price swings, while buyers may seek hedging or alternative sourcing to mitigate exposure.