Copper, Aluminum, and Steel Prices Set for 2026 Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Copper prices hit a record $14,527/mt after the Strait of Hormuz closure, with JPMorgan forecasting continued support through 2026 due to constrained mine supply and electrification demand. Aluminum faces a 1.7 Mt deficit, with prices projected to reach $3,800/mt in Q3 2026 before easing, driven by Middle East supply disruptions and Chinese capacity limits. Steel remains near $1,186/mt, buoyed by tariff exemptions and a new EU tariff‑rate quota, though demand weakness in China tempers upside.
Copper prices hit a record $14,527/mt after the Strait of Hormuz closure, with JPMorgan forecasting continued support through 2026 due to constrained mine supply and electrification demand. Aluminum faces a 1.7 Mt deficit, with prices projected to reach $3,800/mt in Q3 2026 before easing, driven by Middle East supply disruptions and Chinese capacity limits. Steel remains near $1,186/mt, buoyed by tariff exemptions and a new EU tariff‑rate quota, though demand weakness in China tempers upside.
Copper traders should monitor US Section 232 tariff decisions, as a tightening could spur pre‑tariff purchases and lift prices further. Aluminum inventories in China are expected to fall, potentially triggering export restrictions that could push prices above current forecasts. Steel producers may benefit from tariff protections, but weak Chinese demand could limit growth, keeping prices in a narrow range.