Aluminium Prices Set for Bullish Run 2026‑2030 Amid Supply Constraints
LME aluminium is trading near $3,175 per tonne, up 23% YoY, after peaking at $3,651 in May 2026. Forecasts project a sustained rally to $3,300–$3,500 by 2027, driven by a structural deficit, Chinese smelter limits, and US tariff‑induced premium. A short‑term correction to roughly $3,144 by Q3 2026 is expected as inventories dip below 300,000 tonnes, but supply tightness should support a medium‑term rebound.
LME aluminium is trading near $3,175 per tonne, up 23% YoY, after peaking at $3,651 in May 2026. Forecasts project a sustained rally to $3,300–$3,500 by 2027, driven by a structural deficit, Chinese smelter limits, and US tariff‑induced premium. A short‑term correction to roughly $3,144 by Q3 2026 is expected as inventories dip below 300,000 tonnes, but supply tightness should support a medium‑term rebound.
Traders should watch Chinese production data and US tariff adjustments for short‑term price swings, while the persistent deficit and inventory drawdown provide a backdrop for a medium‑term rally. Positions in aluminium futures or CFDs could benefit from the expected upward trend, but risk of a temporary dip remains.